DraftKings vs Kalshi: Truist Survey Reveals Sports Betting Gaps

Benjamin Reyes

Uncategorized

March 18, 2026

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A Truist Securities survey has revealed a clear gap between traditional sportsbooks and prediction market platforms, with DraftKings capturing 20% of overall user preference against competitors including Kalshi. Kalshi holds the top spot within the prediction market segment, but struggles to match the broad appeal of established sportsbook brands. The findings carry significant implications for the future of regulated sports wagering and the growing prediction market sector across the United States.

DraftKings Claims 20% Overall Favorability as Kalshi Leads Its Own Category

How DraftKings Dominates the Broader Betting Preference Poll

The Truist Securities survey asked participants to select the most appealing betting option when presented with both traditional sportsbooks and prediction market platforms side by side. DraftKings emerged as the top overall pick, chosen by 20% of respondents, a margin that reflects the brand’s deep penetration in states where online sports betting is fully legal [1]. This result is not surprising given DraftKings’ decade-long presence in daily fantasy sports and its aggressive expansion into regulated sports wagering following the 2018 Supreme Court ruling in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association.

The survey results highlight a structural advantage that established sportsbooks hold: name recognition built through years of marketing spend, app store dominance, and promotional offers. DraftKings reported $1.4 billion in revenue for Q3 2024, a figure that underscores the scale separating it from newer prediction market entrants. Kalshi, by contrast, launched its sports event contracts in late 2024 after winning a federal court battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

User preference for traditional sportsbooks is highest in jurisdictions where online sports betting is already permitted, according to the Truist data [1]. States like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where DraftKings and FanDuel have operated for several years, show the strongest loyalty to conventional wagering platforms. This geographic pattern shapes the entire competitive dynamic between the two product types.

Kalshi’s Position Within the Prediction Market Segment

Despite trailing DraftKings in overall favorability, Kalshi leads the prediction market category by outperforming similar platforms including Polymarket and PredictIt [2]. This distinction matters because the prediction market segment is still forming its identity in the U.S. regulatory environment, and early category leadership often determines long-term market share. Kalshi’s legal victory over the CFTC in August 2024 gave it a first-mover advantage in offering federally regulated event contracts on sports outcomes.

Prediction markets operate under a fundamentally different regulatory framework than sportsbooks. They are governed by the CFTC as derivatives exchanges rather than by state gaming commissions, which means they can legally operate in states like California and Texas where traditional sports betting remains prohibited [2]. This regulatory arbitrage is Kalshi’s most powerful competitive asset and the primary reason it shows high engagement in non-betting states.

The Truist survey data suggests that Kalshi’s growth path runs through underserved markets rather than direct competition with DraftKings in established betting states. That is a strategic position with real ceiling potential, given that California alone represents roughly 39 million residents with no access to legal sports wagering.

Prediction Market Users Are Older, Wealthier, and More Educated Than Expected

The Demographic Profile Reshaping Assumptions About Online Bettors

One of the most striking findings from the Truist survey is the demographic composition of prediction market users. Rather than skewing toward younger, casual bettors, prediction market participants tend to be aged between their late twenties and late forties, hold university degrees, and earn more than $100,000 annually [1]. This profile more closely resembles a financial markets investor than a traditional sports bettor, which has direct implications for how platforms like Kalshi should position their products.

This demographic reality aligns with the intellectual framing of prediction markets as information aggregation tools rather than pure gambling products. Platforms like Kalshi market their contracts as a way to trade on real-world outcomes, drawing on the language of futures markets and financial derivatives. The high-income, educated user base suggests that prediction markets are attracting people who are comfortable with financial instruments and motivated by more than entertainment alone.

For comparison, the American Gaming Association’s 2024 State of the Industry report noted that the median age of a sports bettor in the U.S. is 34, with household incomes skewing toward the $50,000 to $75,000 range. The Truist survey data places prediction market users noticeably above both benchmarks, signaling a distinct and potentially more valuable customer segment from an advertiser and platform monetization perspective.

Geographic Concentration in California and Texas Signals Untapped Demand

The Truist survey found that prediction markets show their highest engagement levels in California and Texas, two of the three most populous U.S. states, both of which lack legal online sports betting [2]. California voters rejected Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 in November 2022, leaving the state’s 39 million residents without access to regulated sportsbooks. Texas has seen repeated legislative failures to advance sports betting bills through its part-time legislature.

This geographic concentration is not coincidental. In the absence of DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM, residents in these states who want to wager on sports outcomes have limited legal options. Prediction markets, operating under CFTC oversight, fill that gap legally. The Truist data effectively quantifies what many industry analysts have argued qualitatively: suppressed demand in large non-betting states is a structural tailwind for platforms like Kalshi.

Platform Comparison: DraftKings vs Kalshi in 2025

The broader prediction market sector gained significant momentum in 2024 following Kalshi’s court victory and the CFTC’s subsequent decision not to appeal. Polymarket, which operates offshore and primarily serves international users, processed over $3.5 billion in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle alone, demonstrating the scale of appetite for event-based contracts [2]. That figure gave regulators and investors a concrete benchmark for what a legal, domestic prediction market could achieve.

DraftKings, for its part, has not stood still. The company launched its own prediction-style products and continues to expand its same-game parlay offerings, which function similarly to prediction market contracts in allowing users to combine multiple outcome bets into a single position. The convergence of product features between sportsbooks and prediction markets may ultimately blur the category distinction that currently defines the competitive divide.

Traditional sportsbooks also benefit from years of established payment infrastructure, loyalty programs, and state-level licensing relationships that prediction markets are only beginning to build. The Truist survey captures a moment in time when DraftKings holds a commanding lead, but the regulatory and geographic advantages Kalshi possesses could compress that gap meaningfully over the next three to five years.

What This Means for Privacy-Focused and Anonymous Bettors

Both DraftKings and Kalshi require full identity verification to comply with their respective regulatory frameworks, whether state gaming commissions or the CFTC. For bettors who prioritize financial privacy, neither platform offers an anonymous wagering option. This is a meaningful distinction for a segment of the betting population that actively seeks platforms where personal data is not collected, stored, or potentially shared with third parties.

The Truist survey’s finding that prediction market users skew toward high-income, educated individuals is relevant here. This demographic tends to be more aware of data privacy risks and more likely to research the data practices of platforms they use. The growth of no KYC casino platforms reflects exactly this kind of privacy-conscious demand, offering an alternative for users who want to participate in online wagering without submitting government-issued identification or linking bank accounts.

As the U.S. betting market continues to formalize through state and federal regulation, the gap between fully regulated, identity-verified platforms and privacy-preserving alternatives is likely to widen rather than narrow. Users who value anonymity are making a deliberate choice that neither DraftKings nor Kalshi is positioned to serve.

Key Takeaways

• DraftKings was selected as the most appealing betting option by 20% of Truist survey respondents, making it the top overall pick across both sportsbook and prediction market categories.
• Kalshi leads the prediction market segment specifically, outperforming competitors like Polymarket and PredictIt in user preference within that category.
• Traditional sportsbook preference is highest in states with existing legal online sports betting, such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
• Prediction markets show their strongest engagement in California and Texas, two states where online sports betting remains illegal following failed legislative and ballot efforts.
• Prediction market users are primarily aged in their late twenties to late forties, hold university degrees, and earn more than $100,000 annually, a demographic that differs significantly from the median sports bettor profile.
• Kalshi secured its legal right to offer sports event contracts after winning a federal court case against the CFTC in August 2024, giving it a federally regulated pathway into states off-limits to traditional sportsbooks.
• Both DraftKings and Kalshi require full KYC identity verification, leaving privacy-focused bettors outside the scope of either platform’s offering.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Bottom Line

The Truist Securities survey captures a U.S. betting market in genuine transition. DraftKings holds a commanding 20% overall favorability rating and benefits from years of brand equity in states where sports betting is legal. Kalshi, despite leading its own category, is playing a longer game: building a federally regulated user base in the country’s largest states while traditional sportsbooks remain locked out by state law. The demographic data reinforces this strategic divergence, with Kalshi attracting a financially sophisticated audience that may prove more durable and higher-value over time [1][2].

The competitive picture will sharpen as California and Texas revisit sports betting legislation, potentially eliminating Kalshi’s geographic moat in its strongest markets. If either state legalizes online sports betting in the next legislative cycle, DraftKings and FanDuel will enter with enormous marketing budgets and established national brands. Kalshi’s window to convert casual prediction market users into loyal platform advocates may be narrower than the current survey data suggests.

What the data makes clear is that the U.S. online wagering market is no longer a single category. It is a collection of overlapping segments, each shaped by regulation, geography, and user intent. The platforms that understand those distinctions precisely, rather than treating all bettors as interchangeable, will define the next decade of online wagering in America.

Sources

1. Casino.org – Truist Securities survey data on DraftKings overall favorability, prediction market user demographics, and state-by-state preference trends.
2. GamblingNews.com – Kalshi’s regulatory position, CFTC court victory in August 2024, and prediction market engagement in California and Texas.